Silver lining in economic downturn as industrial inactivity results in less CO2

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Despite the clouds hanging over the Japanese economy, there is one silver lining: The drop in industrial activity will cause national carbon dioxide emissions to move closer to their Kyoto Protocol targets, according to a Tokyo-based energy research institute.

However, “if spending in energy conservation is cut back, anti-global warming measures are in danger of being slowed down,” the Institute of Energy Economics Japan warns.

The estimates were based on a predicted decrease in fossil fuel use; especially oil, which is responsible for the majority of greenhouse gas emissions.

Assuming a 1 percent decrease in real GDP growth in fiscal 2008, carbon dioxide is predicted to drop to 1.172 billion tons, a 3.8 percent decrease from the previous year. That trend is set to continue into the next financial year, dropping to 1.09 billion tons.

Under the Kyoto Protocol, Japan is required to reduce its greenhouse gas emissions by an average of 6 percent from their fiscal 1990 level over the fiscal years 2008 to 2012. However, compared to 1990, carbon dioxide emissions actually increased by 15 percent in fiscal 2007. And, even if the predicted decrease does occur, emissions in fiscal 2009 will still be 2.9 percent higher than the 1990 figure.