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(at the federal level) trade a VAT and a carbon tax for the payroll tax and the income tax: revenue picture looks like what?
Nothing good. Eric Toder and Joseph Rosenberg at the Tax Policy Center estimate (pdf) that a 5 percent value-added tax (VAT) would bring in $258.6 billion a year in tax revenue if applied to a broad base of goods and $160.9 billion if applied to a narrower base (excluding housing and food costs, for example) or applied to a broad base with a rebate to pay for necessities. Meanwhile, Gilbert Metcalf at the Brookings Institute figures (pdf) that a $15 per ton carbon tax, assuming a 14 percent reduction in greenhouse gas emissions, would bring in about $82.5 billion a year, with greater revenue if the emissions reductions are more modest. That adds up to a high end figure of $341.1 billion, a far cry from the more than $1.7 trillion (pdf) that personal income, Social Security and Medicare taxes brought in during fiscal year 2009.